
So I've been reading through the various news sites and taking in the incredulous prose regarding the 15 cent rise in the price of a gallon of gas over the last two weeks. Oil surpluses are high, refining capacity is coming back on line and supply isn't in bad shape. A warm winter has eased demand and if simple economic theory were to hold then one would expect prices to be falling not climbing. But that's not how it works because markets are effected by a lot more than just supply and demand. They are affected by futures and perception and uncertainty all of which are at historic levels of hysteria in this particular market.
A lot of people are really seeing this whole thing as a negative but not me. I'm actually thinking good things about higher gas prices. The low milage, carbon dioxide spewing SUV is a thing of the past as are the prehistorically slow to change paradigms at the big three automakers. People want more efficent vehicles and even if Detroit is slow to deliver, they will come around or they will perish. The other upside is that people are going to have to start thinking very soon about the types of decisions they make in terms of their transportation. We have an infrastructure that was built and the basis of massive availability of cheap, portable, liquid fuels. That assumption is obviously a thing of the past. What I'm really looking forward to seeing is how people resolve that. When gas hits $4-5 a gallon this summer (assuming it follows the run up in prices seen in the last two summers) I think people are going to question their choices on where they live, how they get to work and what types of recreation they participate in. I think we may see a rise in de-urbanization where people choose to live in smaller towns with less congestion and do most if not all of their work there, either from home or from a more local office. I also believe you'll see a lot larger public outcry for cheap, fast mass transit. Here in Georgia the high-speed rail line might finally get pushed through and finished.
Some industries will be negatively impacted, of course. With fewer drivers there will be fewer hotel stays. I think airlines will benefit in that they do offer mass transit but only if they use modern load balancing modeling and the like. Some convenience will likely have to be sacrificed in order to deal with high fuel costs or low passenger load aircraft. Some airlines seem to have found a way to deal with these challenges while many others are floundering. Tourism to far away places will likely be negatively impacted but the local tourism industries may well benefit. Trips to DisneyWorld, Branson, Missouri and Vail may well drop off but the local state park may once again find increased traffic from families wanting to get away from home but not willing to spend a sizable chunk of their travel budgets on gas. If they are able to partner with local attractions, hotels and motels may be able to offset the loss of the long-distance traveller.
Finally, I see a time of real challenge ahead for small colleges like Gordon unless they build more living space and deal with issues related to families who have someone trying to retrun to school. Right now we have a lot of students who drive 50+ miles one way to get here. If their communte cost becomes $25 per day theat's going to keep a lot of them from coming. While flexible scheduling can allieviate that (all classes on Monday/Wednesday or Tuesday/Thursday) such solutions are often enacted at the expense of student success in the classroom, especially in an era of low academic literacy among students whose high school experiences amounted to little more than extended babysitting and social control. It seems that the two-year college model will have to change to include significant residential support as well as possible extended academic support in remote locations. This would be different than academic class centers that are now common in that students would go to the support centers for tutoring, student skills seminars and exclusively remedial classes before coming to the main campus.
Anyways, I see a lot of changes in the near future for American society as fossil fuels become more precious and more necessary to ration towards industrial uses only.
Thanks for Reading.