Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Friday, June 30, 2006

Damn.

It's all blown up over at the Tour. I had a longer post but I lost it so here's my rejiggered overall now that four of last year's top five will be sitting the race out (Lance retired, the rest suspended) and the fifth has no team:

Landis
Leipheimer
Salvodelli
Evans
Vinokourov
Valverde
Azevedo
Sastre
Hincapie
Moreau

The hardest bit here was trying figure out how the Disco boys where going to factor in. Good tactics and they win this thing again with one of their riders. It may be every versus Discovery again this year but for very different reasons.

Jerks.

I'll write more later this evening and give you my prologue predictions.

Thanks for reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Well, as the start of the Tour approaches there are a couple of updates.

First, there are reports that LiquiGas rider Danilo DiLuca is going to ride for the Spotty Jersey. It seems that the LiquiGas director (i.e.-coach/manager) read my blog from a few days back and decided that riding for a lower place in the overall wasn't as good as contending for another jersey like I said. DiLuca was one of the favorites to win the Giro de Italia and had what might be termed a disappointing performance against Basso. DiLuca's teammate Stephano Garzelli has tried to ride for the overall in the past at the Tour and has finished tenth. I think he'll be shooting for a stage win in the mountains and an higher placing but that's about all. DiLuca's a pretty good spinter and a strong man so he could definitely give Rasmussen and Mayo (if he decides to go for it) a run for the jersey I think he'll have a good shot at it. So here's my revised eidtion of the Spotted Jersey prediction:

What I think I'd like to see: (1) Mayo, (2) DiLuca, (3) Rasmussen (I keep hearing that all Simoni is shooting for is a stage)

What I think we'll see: (1) DiLuca, (2) Rasmussen, (3) Basso, (4) Mayo, (5) Landis (I've taken Voekler out because I think DiLuca's going to go for a lot of early points to create a lead before the race hits the mountains

Secondly, Ullich's definitely in according to the ASO folks (the race organizers). Vino won't know until Friday but his team's not been invited to the team presentations this evening. ASO is required to allow the team in according to UCI rules but they've appealed to the Court of Sports Arbitration to supercede the rule. I think a compromise will reached where the team will be allowed to race but not with any of the individuals named in the Operation Puerto report. They may have a hard time fielding a team but I think they'll sign one off contracts with a couple of riders if they have to. Astana, a Kazahk company really wants to see Vino contend for this thing so they'll pull whatever strings they need to. There are rumors that the president of Kazahkstan will be calling French preime minister Chirac to apply pressure. Given the French tendancy to roll over to foreign powers on any number of issues I expect this will work nicely. If LeBlanc was still the Director over at ASO he'd probably dig his heels in but I think he's stepped aside.

More updates over the next couple of days.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

This is the overall classification jersey. The rider who wears the Yellow Jersey is the rider who has completed the race in the least cumulative time. What this means is that the rider doesn't have to win every stage or, actually, any stage but has to be consistently good. On the sprint stages, he has to finish in the pack. In the time trials, he must finish in the top ten or fifteen at least (preferably in the top five). Where the leader in this classification usually must excel is in the high mountains, finishing in the top five on several stages when the road goes upwards. Given these criteria, the stages to watch will be stages 7 and 19, the long time trials, and stages 13, 15 and 16. The last three are mountain stages with uphill finishes. Stage 17 might be important if the race is still close but I'm guessing there will be a long breakaway on that stage with the Yellow Jersey leaders marking each other and waiting for the last individual time trial on stage 19.

So whose going to win this thing? Well, that depends on who actually gets to race? Right now, two of the contenders seem to have question marks looming over their heads. Vinokourov has the problem of riding for a team that has been asked by the race not to start. The team will most certainly come if it's allowed to by the sport's governing body but that's got to be tough. Vino is a strong, attacking rider who isn't the best climber or time trialist. He's what's known as a rolleur; the type of rider who can attack on almost any terrain but is best when the course becomes undulating with a short, hard climb. Vino's finished third once and was fifth last year and has banked his whole season on this race. The other rider who is in trouble is Jan Ullrich who has ridden eight Tours and never finished lower than 4th including a win way back in 1997. Ullrich has been circumstantially linked to a doping operation in Spain that was discovered last month. While it is unlikely that he will be excluded from the Tour on the present evidence, the situation has to be a huge distraction for him. Ullrich is a good climber but is probably the best time trialist in the world right now. It is possible that one or both of these riders will be missing from the start line this year.

Other contenders include Ivan Basso, winner of this year's Tour of Italy, Francesco Mancebo, last year's fourth place finisher, Alejandro Valverde, Aussie Cadel Evans and two Americans: Floyd Landis and Levi Leipheimer. Basso crushed his competition in Italy and has had an excellent buildup for this race. The problem is that doing two Grand Tours at the top level is extremely hard. Will he have the extra burst he needs when the contenders turn up the pressure? In the Giro, Basso looked like he had purposely copied Lance Armstrong's game plan and was dominant in the mountians. If the same thing happens in the Tour, he'll be hard to beat. Mancebo is a good, solid rider who probably can't win but may step up onto the podium. Evans can climb but his time trialing skills aren't exactly at the top level. Floyd has had an excellent season so far winning several hard weeklong stage races including the Tour of Georgia and Paris-Nice. He can ride at an incredible level but in the past has lacked the winning burst to take him away from the others inthe mountains. This year's results indicate that he's picked that up. Leipheimer is coming fresh off a win at the big Tour build-up race known as the Duaphine Libere. He's not excellent at anything but is one of the better climbers and may be able to hang with the favorites in all the mountian stages. Levi's big problem seems to be that he always has a bad day (much like Vino does) in the long races. Finally, the Discovery team is bringing a whole cadre of possible GC contenders. My pick is actually Jose Azevedo who has finished fifth a couple of times in the past riding for Joseba Beloki and Lance Armstrong. He has a legitimate chance at finishing on the podium if he's given the support of the team.

So, looking things over, here's what I think. Ullrich and Landis will be the strongest time trialists of the bunch. Given that both time trial stages are pretty long, this favors them. Basso and Valverde are the best climbers but Valverde has never finished a Tour and I can't help but think he'll have a bad day or two and lose too much time in the time trials to win. If Basso has recovered from the Giro, it'll be hard to beat him when the road goes up. In fact, I think Ullrich's going to have a really hard time following the leaders if they decide to surge away from him. Floyd will be able to hang with Basso for most of the climbs and won't lose too much time. The same is probably true for Azevedo and Mancebo. Azevedo isn't a good time trialist nor is Mancebo (top 15 and maybe top 10 but no higher). So here's some predictions:

(1) The prologue will set the GC for a few stages. I like American Dave Zabriskie here. David Millar may shock everyone in his comeback from a doping suspension but I think the pressure will be a bit too much for him.

(2) Dave will give up the jersey after a couple of stages to one of the sprinters; most likely Boonen or McEwen (I'd vote Boonen given the stage finishes in Belgium).

(3) The stage 7 time trial will select the favorites i think just like the stage 5 time trial in Metz in 1999 showed that Armstrong was a force to be reckoned with. I'd like to pick Zabriskie here again but I have a feeling he'll be asked to hold back to ride for Basso so I'm going to go with Ullrich with Landis close behind.

(4) Stage 10 will see the Vino attack and put time into everyone. Maybe he'll grab the jersey from Ullrich.

My final top ten looks like:

Basso
Landis
Vinokourov
Azevedo
Leipheimer
Evans
Ullrich
Mancebo
Valverde
Hincapie

Now, I reserve the right to change this if Ullrich and/or Vinokourov get excluded and if I see that the time trials are hillier than I've been led to believe. Don't be too surprised if one of these guys drops out in the first ten days. It seems to happen about every other year that one of the big pre-race favorites isn't on form or gets sick. We'll see this year.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Monday, June 26, 2006

Actually, it's known as the Polka Dot Jersey. It's the jersey given to the best climber in the tour. That's not really true either actually. It's really the best jersey given to the best tactical climber. Often times the best climber is the guy who wins the Tour but he doesn't usually cross each mountian pass first due to riding in the slip-stream of his team. So, this jersey is usually given to the best climber who can't really time trial well enough to win the Tour. The way it works is that you win points for going over certain designated hills or mountians in the first few spots. In the early stages of the race, these climbs are usually pretty arbitrary as there are lots of small climbs to choose from. These are Cat 4 climbs which aren't worth much. They seem to be included to motivate riders to get into early breakaways for a chance to wear a jersey early on. Look for a guy like Thomas Voeckler or Erik Dekker to try and snag this in the first few stages. The French teams seem to really like to get ahold of this before the real mountains show up.

Once you get to the bigger climbs, this year the Pyrennes are first, the climb ratings are usually higher; Cat 2, Cat 1 or Hors Catagorie (Beyond Classification). This is where the jersey usually gets won. The last several years the tactic has been for a jersey hopeful to go out on a long breakaway on the stage with the most climbs and win a bunch of those. He won't care that he gets caught on the final climb as he'll have built up a huge advantage over the field. That makes things easy to hang onto after that. Jalabert did it for two years, then Virenque and last year Michael Rasmussen did it. The Tour tried to reign the tactic in by making the last climb worth double ppoints if it was the stage finish but that didn't seem to do much to change things. the biggest problem seems to be that each year only one person really seems to want to win the darn thing.

So, Rasmussen is riding again and I expect he'll go for the jersey again. Who else? Well, it depends a lot on tactics. Usually, the guys who go for the jersey diminish their chances of winning a stage somewhat. Additionally, good climbers on a team with a strong Yellow Jersey contender usually ride for their leader. So who does that leave? Well, a lot of guys actually; if they decide to ride for it instead of some lousy tenth place finish. Of course, tenth in the Tour is probably better than second in a secondart jersey competition. Christophe Moreau has sort of hinted at trying over the last couple of years and may try again this year. I suspect he may be pressed into service to ride for Mancebo who's shooting for the podium so I don't expect him to challenge. Voeckler may try to hang onto the jersey for a while and he rode well in the mountainous "Ruta del Sud" so I'd pick him as an outside contender. I think his teammate Didier Rous would do well but I think he'll go for GC so no dice there. A good wild card might be Mercado who rides for the Wild Card Agritubel French team. He can climb somehwat and I don't think his team has much in the way of overall aspirations. Valverde is going for Yellow but I think if I were his team manager I might have him try for the climber's jersey instead. He has a lot of years to ride for the overall and this will give him a chance to test himself over the entire Tour route which he has yet to finish. Egoi Martinez for the Discovery Channel would be a good candidate but a lot depends on how the team's strategy plays out. The best person to challenge in my mind is Iban Mayo. Everyone knows he's going to get killed in the time trials so why not have him shoot for a jersey of a different color? The same is true for the perenial crybaby Gilbreto Simoni and his better mannered countryman Stephano Garzelli on the Liquigas squad.

So, how will it turn out? Here's what I'd like to see:

(1) Mayo, (2) Simoni, (3) Rasmussen

but, given that everone seems to want a high place on the overall leaderboard here's what I think will happen:

(1) Rasmussen
(2) Basso
(3) Mayo
(4) Voeckler
(5) Ullrich

At this point though, there's still a lot to be learned. Of all the classifications, this is the one I'm least sure of. Too much comes down to unclear tactics and motivations. I know what I'd do if I were the manager of some of these teams, but I don't have to answer to sponsors or my riders. I think Mayo has to do something to give back to the fans that have backed him over the last several years. He'll never win the overall but he can make the jersey mean something again. I hope he rides to be the best climber in the Tour this year. Save your strength Iban and don't try for the Yellow but make us root for you as you dance up the Tourmalet.

If recent strategy holds to form, Stage 11 is where the guantlet will really be thrown down in this year's race for the spotted jersey. There may be a temporary holder after stage 10 with it's climb up the Soudet (my guess would be Voeckler) but Stage 11 has five Cat 1 or HC climbs and I think the shakeout will happen there. Stages 16 and 17 also have four big climbs each but I think the jersey may be sown up by then.

Up next, the overall podium.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Friday, June 23, 2006

The Tour is a little over a week away and, as I mentioned in a previous post, this year's race looks to be pretty wide open. In fact, most of the professional prognosticators think this will be the most exciting Tour since '99 when Lance shocked the world by winning his first. To many Americans, the fact that Lance isn't riding makes the race less interesting but for fans of the sport there may be a lot more to watch and a lot more going on tactically.

What I thought I'd do is go through each of the jerseys and make my predictions over the comming days as to what I think will happen. Maybe if I'm spot on enough someone like Cycling News or Velonews or even ESPN might pick me up next year to do a "view from the fan" sort of thing....I wish! I do reserve the right to make changes to these predictions all the way up to the start of the race if some weird happens like a major contender rides into the back of his team car at 40 mph.

The Green Jersey is the points jersey. Most people think of this as the sprinter's jersey but in reality its the jersey for the rider who most consistently finishes high in the stages. Since flat stages are worth more points, the sprinters generally win the jersey but not always. Laurent Jalabert won the jersey a couple of times not because he was anywhere near the best sprinter but because he was a good all-arounder. This year may have a similar surprise in store depending on what the strategy is on a couple of teams.

First the sprinters. There are three former Green Jersey winners int he race this year: Eric Zabel (won it six times), Robbie McEwen (won it twice) and Thor Hushovd (won it last year). Add to those names World Champion Tom Boonen, France's Bernard Eisel and another Aussie, Allan Davis. Ont he flat stages these will be the men most likely to finish high in each stage.

The interesting thing about this year's Tour, much like the 2004 Tour, a couple of the early stages trace the routes of the Spring Classics. These courses are actually hard for a pure sprinter to win on as their hills tend to favor more of a hard man. This is where the all-arounders will have a chance I think. Combine that with a couple of good time trial performances and a good finish on some of the hillier stages and someone like George Hincapie, Magnus Backstedt or Stuart O'Grady might be able to snag the jersey out from under the noses of the sprinters.

The question is one of team tactics. Hincapie's Discovery team has said that he might be gunning for a position in the overall classification which means he'll conserve energy in the early sprints. O'Grady's team will be working to secure a win in the yellow jersey competition for their team leader Ivan Basso so I don't expect him to have much freedom to pursue the jersey.

With that having been said, I think the jersey will go to one of the sprinters. The smart money would be on Tom Boonen. He's won nearly everything he's tried for this year with the exception of Paris-Roubaix. He's exceptionally good in the Spring Classics and won two stages and wore the jersey last year before injuring his kneee and withdrawing from the Tour. If Discovery decides to try to get Hincapie the jersey I could see him contending as well.

One wild card is Alejandro Valverde. He can climb and sprint but he's said he wants a spot ont he final podium so that would indicate he's not going to spend the energy early either but you never know. He won two Spring Classics this year.

So, my prediction is:

(1) Boonen
(2) McEwen
(3) Hushovd
(4) Zabel
(5) Valverde

If George decides to go for Green instead of Yellow then I see him finishing second in front of McEwen but still behind Boonen.

Next Up...The Spotty Jersey

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Back in the early 80's (I think), Steve Martin put out this album of comedy stuff he did called, "The Cruel Shoes". It was pretty darn funny. One of my favorite bits was the excuse routine where he said that a person could get away with anything by using the simple excuse, "I forgot..." He pointed out that it had great applicability in a lot of different situations. "I forgot to pay my taxes." "I forgot that armed robbery was a federal offense." That sort of thing.

Well, in thinking about this recently (and enjoying a chuckle for about the ten thousanth time) I realized that the excuse needed to be updated. With all of the electronic and media reminders of stuff, the excuse just isn't socially acceptable anymore. Who's going to buy the excuse, "I forgot that driving an SUV might lead to an increase of global warming..." or "I forgot that we were looking for weapons of mass destruction..."? How lame would it be so say, "I forgot that emails from unknown parties might contain viruses..." Talk about being branded an instant loser.

So, we need an updated excuse that fits with the high anxiety, million-mile-a-minute, eating stress for breakfast with a natural disaster chaser, is that my cell again, no I don't want to buy a product that will make my ____ bigger, is my partner truly "satisfied", who gets to marry who world. We need something that captures the deep, persistent psychosis so much of the world finds itself engaging in for fun and profit. Something that is both believable (a sort of , "I could see that; heck it's happened to me once or twice" kind of thing) and that covers a broad range of situations.

I vote that the new phrase for the generic, cover all the bases excuse be..."The voices in my head told me..."

Think about it. Forgot to call your mom on Mother's Day? The next time you talk to her say, "I'm sorry I didn't call Mom. I was going to call but the voices in my head told me not to." Feel like invading another political entity for hoots and giggles and beer money? You can just say, "I know that what I did is forbidden by UN Security Council resolution 324 but the voices in my head told me I had to."

Now, I know what you're thinking (the voices in my head told me). "Dude, if I do that, they'll put me in a facility and give me a thorazine drip or make me a talk show host on the UPN or WB network and I'll be condemned to a hellish eternity of interviewing chemically castrated transexuals who had inappropriate relations with marsupials in the boardroom kitchenette." That might be true if you went it alone but if we all use the excuse then what are they going to do? Not even the WB has that many time slots to fill with some sort of programming. Besides, if they do commit you, there's always the book deal you can get as long as you didn't hurt anyone.

Anyways...something to think about.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Monday, June 19, 2006

Another race, another broken rib. Actually, I think it's the same one. I was racing so well too. Half a mile from the finish. The rib wasn't the pisser; the bent rear derailleur was. I was able to finish but in messing around with getting the chain to work right I was passed by a guy and I didn't catch the one guy I was about to catch. Of course, the lack of wind in my right lung may have impeded my ability to chase the guy down too. Anyways, I did manage to finish 8th in a really hard race up in Helen, GA that had a ton of climbing. My form is actually pretty good right now if I can get myself to breathe deeply. The pain doesn't seem to be as bad as last time as I actually landed on my right shoulder instead of my right side. In place of the extra rib pain I have soreness in my neck, right shoulder and right quads (I'm watching House Season 1 right now, can you tell???). This is apart from the pain I have in my hamstrings due to the extremely hard effort of the race. My legs haven't hurt like this since last year's state time trial championships. I love that feeling.

Here's a quote to that effect:

"To be a cyclist is to be a student of pain....at cycling's core lies pain, hard and bitter as the pit inside a juicy peach. It doesn't matter if you're sprinting for an Olympic medal, a town sign, a trailhead, or the rest stop with the homemade brownies. If you never confront pain, you're missing the essence of the sport. Without pain, there's no adversity. Without adversity, no challenge. Without challenge, no improvement. No improvement, no sense of accomplishment and no deep-down joy. Might as well be playing Tiddly-Winks." Scott Martin

The next race is this weekend on a hard course down in Macon again. I wonder if I'll be ready. I'm going to do a time trial in Union City the day before but I've got to find some time to pre-ride the course. I'm told it's hard and technical and has no rhythm. Just exactly not my kind of course. But I'm sixth in the Georgia Championship Series and I hate the thought of not trying to hang onto that. A lot may come down to the weather. If there's rain I'm definitely staying home. Maybe I'll get lucky and it'll pour and I'll have an excuse.

On a related note, the Tour starts soon. I'm starting to get excited. I wasn't going to get excited this year. It's not that Lance retired. To begin with, it's the whole crap drug thing. First the allegations that Lance used EPO that seems like a total witchhunt now and then the whole Spanish Operation Puerto that has taken down two teams so far and threatens to end Spanish cycling as we know it (and maybe soccer too). The other part of the problem too is that there really isn't an American team to root for. Back in the day I could root for the Postal Service team because it was an American Team run by American guys with an American sponsor with mostly Americans riding American bikes. This year the only American tour rider is George Hincapie. The CSC team has more Americans riding the Tour with Julich, Van de Velde and Zabriskie and an American sponsor on a cool North American bike. I want to root for the home team but who is that? Is it Phonak or Gerolsteiner with their American team leaders with a good chance to podium? Is it the American owned team with the international media sponsor? Is it the Danish team with the Italian team leader but lots of Americans riding in support on those really cool bikes?

Anyways. I'm getting excited because the Tour's wide open in a way. Lance is gone so everyone thinks they have a chance and everyone thinks everyone else has a chance too. Ullrich, the almost eternal pretender, has one more shot. He gets beat again and you can put a fork in him. There's some motivation for a guy; last chance to write a legacy. Basso's trying to do the double but can anyone really do it anymore or has the level gone up to too high a level without the type of doping Pantani did? Is Floyd Landis really that good when the race is more than a week long? He seems to have the cruel, heartless, competitive nature of Hinualt and Armstrong but does he have the form? Can Leipheimer step up that last extra notch? And what about Vino? Can the crazy Khazak restrain his attacking nature enough to avoid the bad day he always seems to have the day after he goes on one of his attacks that shatter the rest of the peloton? If Lance isn't there is there anyone who can limit the damage so that the following bad day costs Vino the race? So many great questions. Do you think someone will be willing to take over my life for about three weeks while I geek out over the Tour? I need some cooking and cleaning along with a little yard work. Any volenteers?

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Wow...it's been a long time since I posted here. I've been very busy with the Astro class I'm teaching. I spent a bunch of time in the planning of the course so I would have more time and the grading has eaten up all of that and more. I'm digging the class and I have a good group of students who seem to be willing to work hard. A nice change from the last year or so of classes where I had less motivated students. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

I've pretty much healed up. Right after the last post I took a week of recovery rides and that seemed to make all the difference. Every so often there's a little tenderness but not too much pain. Hopefully I'll get a chance to do a full on training ride on the MTB bike this week to see how the rib handles that. I did a easy ride out at Dauset and handled it well. The only bad thing was seeing how badly the race had torn up the trails. Thet're still great to ride but seeing the leftovers from the ruts and such just made me sad. This weekend is the Helen race adn if the rain from the tropical system stays away I'll be throwing my hat into the ring for that.

I got a chance to see David Wilcox with my wife last Friday night and really enjoyed the show. He opened with several songs from some of his older albums and then worked his way into the new material from Vista. He told a great story from his family's trip around the country over the last year in a Gulfstream trailer and then played a couple of tunes written from that experience. One song was about the three wise men who followed the star to Bethlehem. David wondered if the star actually wasn't very bright the way it's usually protrayed in the storybooks. He wondered if the wise men were the only one's who followed because they trusted their hearts even if the sign wasn't some huge thing calling out to them. He wondered why so many others who saw the star didn't travel to see what it had to offer but stayed home. It was a great story and the song was perfect and while I listened to it I wondered abobut the meaning and message.

I think that in our self-centered society the easy meaning to take from this would be to say that we need to be able to strike out on some sort of journey or vision quest and leave all the things we have here behind to follow our "star". But what if those things are our children, our friends, our parents, our responsibilities? Maybe the physical journey to follow the star is the easy one; the simple response to a calling. I think of the Desert Fathers who went into the wilderness not as their journey but so that they could start their journey: a journey that took them deep inside themselves to find God who was closer to them than they were to themselves. The journey was one of an inner transformation towards humility and sacrifice instead of some quest for glory. Too often we think that to rise above whatever it is we have to shake off the shackles of our lives and in a sense I think that's always true. But the call may not be to travel long distances but instead to be faithful to those who depend on us. Instead, it may be to let go of a need to be noticed for our efforts by those around us and live lives of quiet integrity where we respect and even honor the dignity of others. In many ways, in a society that shouts and screams the importance of the individual while simultaneously devaluing people through rampant objectification, following such a path may be as revolutionary and as rare as setting out to follow a somewhat unremarkable star. I believe though that both journeys lead to the same place: the worship of a King with gifts that have unimaginable value.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |