The Tour is a little over a week away and, as I mentioned in a previous post, this year's race looks to be pretty wide open. In fact, most of the professional prognosticators think this will be the most exciting Tour since '99 when Lance shocked the world by winning his first. To many Americans, the fact that Lance isn't riding makes the race less interesting but for fans of the sport there may be a lot more to watch and a lot more going on tactically.
What I thought I'd do is go through each of the jerseys and make my predictions over the comming days as to what I think will happen. Maybe if I'm spot on enough someone like Cycling News or Velonews or even ESPN might pick me up next year to do a "view from the fan" sort of thing....I wish! I do reserve the right to make changes to these predictions all the way up to the start of the race if some weird happens like a major contender rides into the back of his team car at 40 mph.
The Green Jersey is the points jersey. Most people think of this as the sprinter's jersey but in reality its the jersey for the rider who most consistently finishes high in the stages. Since flat stages are worth more points, the sprinters generally win the jersey but not always. Laurent Jalabert won the jersey a couple of times not because he was anywhere near the best sprinter but because he was a good all-arounder. This year may have a similar surprise in store depending on what the strategy is on a couple of teams.
First the sprinters. There are three former Green Jersey winners int he race this year: Eric Zabel (won it six times), Robbie McEwen (won it twice) and Thor Hushovd (won it last year). Add to those names World Champion Tom Boonen, France's Bernard Eisel and another Aussie, Allan Davis. Ont he flat stages these will be the men most likely to finish high in each stage.
The interesting thing about this year's Tour, much like the 2004 Tour, a couple of the early stages trace the routes of the Spring Classics. These courses are actually hard for a pure sprinter to win on as their hills tend to favor more of a hard man. This is where the all-arounders will have a chance I think. Combine that with a couple of good time trial performances and a good finish on some of the hillier stages and someone like George Hincapie, Magnus Backstedt or Stuart O'Grady might be able to snag the jersey out from under the noses of the sprinters.
The question is one of team tactics. Hincapie's Discovery team has said that he might be gunning for a position in the overall classification which means he'll conserve energy in the early sprints. O'Grady's team will be working to secure a win in the yellow jersey competition for their team leader Ivan Basso so I don't expect him to have much freedom to pursue the jersey.
With that having been said, I think the jersey will go to one of the sprinters. The smart money would be on Tom Boonen. He's won nearly everything he's tried for this year with the exception of Paris-Roubaix. He's exceptionally good in the Spring Classics and won two stages and wore the jersey last year before injuring his kneee and withdrawing from the Tour. If Discovery decides to try to get Hincapie the jersey I could see him contending as well.
One wild card is Alejandro Valverde. He can climb and sprint but he's said he wants a spot ont he final podium so that would indicate he's not going to spend the energy early either but you never know. He won two Spring Classics this year.
So, my prediction is:
(1) Boonen
(2) McEwen
(3) Hushovd
(4) Zabel
(5) Valverde
If George decides to go for Green instead of Yellow then I see him finishing second in front of McEwen but still behind Boonen.
Next Up...The Spotty Jersey
