Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Friday, October 28, 2005

Over the last couple of months I've found myself becoming more and more interested in following the various sets of work regarding the lastest strain of the flu. My interest began after reading a book titled, "The First Horseman" where a terrorist group gets ahold of live 1918 flu virus and mutates it to be more resistant to the body's immune system. I read the book several years ago but it picqued my interest in the topic and I've been sort of curious about it since.

This summer I picked up an excellent book titled, "The Great Influenza" that chronicled the course of the 1918 flu and its effects both in the states and on worldwide diplomacy during and following the First World War. The best part of the book, in my mind, was the description of how flu works and how the medical community struggled (amd most often failed) to deal with it. What you learn is that flu is really, really hard to contain for a lot of reasons. What you also learn is that the latest bird flu strain has a lot of similarities to the 1918 strain.

This brings us to the Avian Flu reporting in the media and the media's tendancy to claim the sky is falling. This strain will mutate and become a human flu strain. I have absolutely no question about this. I also believe that the chances are that, unlike SARS, it will be almost impossible to contain this thing once it gets started. The question is, how deadly will it be? Since we as a species have absolutely no immunity to this strain, there will be a large infection rate with real flu symptoms that will knock most people who get it out for two weeks and a lot of people will get it. What is unclear is whether it will be as virulent as the second wave of the 1918 strain. The first wave of the 1918 strain made a lot of people really sick and may have ended WWI due to the Germans not being able to get enough troops moving (the British had the same problem) but it actually didn't kill many people. Somewhere the strain mutated to something much deadlier and the second wave was really deadly.

Right now the media is beginning to build to a fever pitch on the spread of the avian strain. There is some basis for this as the mortality rate when the virus does jump from birds to people is around 40%. But this isn't a human strain. When the strain mutates and becomes human transmitable it remains to be seen what will happen. Right now there are no vaccines at all for this strain and none seem to be forthcoming. However, the mutation may happen tomorrow or it may happen three years down the road (though I tend to think it'll be sooner than later). If we get through a winter before it mutates we may have enough time to work up a vaccine.

How bad will it be? Listen to the media and it may sound like the world is coming to an end...that sells papers and ad time. A truer estimate is that the nation's care care system will be heavily taxed and stretched. This doesn't have to be the case. If the media spent as much time educating the public as it did alarming them we'd find out that you really don't need a hospital for a lot of the flu cases. Unless you are seriously affected by a secondary infection such a pnuemonia there's not much a hospital can do that you can't do at home. But that doesn't sell papers.

The best thing we can do right now is to get educated and prepare. Stock up on ibprofen or Tylenol. Get lots of electrolyte fluids and easy to digest foods. Bolster your immune system by eating right, taking your vitamins, getting enough sleep and exercising regularly. Save your sick leave from work and make sure friends and relatives have a care system in place so that if they're struck they can be helped. What if it does get as bad as the 1918 pandemic? There's not much you'll be able to do to get much help beyond that. The hospitals and health care system will be overwhelmed by the number of critically ill peoople. Just like in the 1918 event, hospitals will basically resort to lining people up in the hallways, trying to give them comfort and IV fluids and taking away the dead. Being educated about how to stay healthy in the first place and what to do in the event you get the virus will be a lot more effective that relying on an overtaxed health care system.

As with so many things, those who take the time and make the effort to get educated will stand a much better chance in dealing with a "nuclear strain". Also, take what the media says wiht a grain of salt. This won't be the plague that kills 30% of those who get it. The 1918 strain had an extremely high mortality rate and it was less than 1 in 20 in most places. While the world may grind to a halt for a few weeks, those who have prepared will find that they'll have plenty of food and supplies to weather any crisis. The question is, will the media's sky is falling coverage cause many to believe that they're just waiting for the next disaster and that there's nothing they can do. That would be most unfortunate.

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