Well gosh. If there were any questions that this Tour was going to be a little weird, today's stage should have put them to rest. A couple of observations:
(1) With the two big favorites gone and Lance retired, none of the high powered teams has an interest in controlling the race. This was pretty obvious not just in the final sprint but all the way through the race. George's sprint for the two second bonus shows that. If CSC had been working for Basso or T-Mobile for Ullrich I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have leet a possible GC rival get a couple of seconds. Phonak and Gerolsteiner weren't paying attention because they hadn't planned to have to. If George is clever, he'll be able to do that a couple of more times I think. If Floyd, Levi or Valverde don't want him to sneak away with a bunch of little time bonuses they're teams are going to have to be a lot more attentive and so are their team directors.
(2) Robbie McEwen made a statement today. He missed the sprint by a whisker much to the surprise of Jimmy Casper who stole a stage victory from the big names. Still Robbie was there at the end and Boonen and Freire weren't. Zabel showed that he's still a class act but if McEwen had had 10 more meters he would have gotten the win. Casper's wearing the Green Jersey for the day but I expect Robbie will be happy to take that away from him tomorrow. Maybe the Yellow Jersey from George as well.
(3) The Tour organizers are going to have to stop handing out those green PMU hands. This is the second time someone's been injured (it happen once back int he 2001 Tour). Sources say that Hushovd should be back tomorrow but it'll take his body a couple of days to recover I'm guessing. And can someone please buy a leadout? What a mess the sprint was!
So, tomorrow's got a few climbs at the beginning and a few smaller one's at the end. I expect the first real moves in the King of the Mountains competition will happen. When DiLuca drifted off the back today I was thinking that he was deliberately losing time so that the contenders might let him go but word is that he's been taking antibiotics for some sort of prostate thing and he couldn't hold the pace at the end. So I don't see him challenging Rasmussen now but Wegmann just might. Bettini might try to get a break together and grab some points since the stage sort of suits him. Since the stage looks like something from the Ardennes classics I expect a couple of guys to do well who do well there. Boogerd and Dekker are names that come up in my mind. I also see a Disco move here again. Maybe Martinez in the break or Popo. I also definitely see Stuart O'Grady or Jens Voigt trying to jump into something. But I also see Robbie McEwen and Tom Boonen wanting to redeem themselves after today's failure to launch.
So it's another break that has a bit more sticking power than the sorry six plus one from today who couldn't hold off the disorganized peloton. I see Wegmann, a CSC strongman, Martinez and Bettini all battling it out for the two Cat 3 climb points and then the long slog across the undulating landscape of Luxemborg. The break should get caught before the pair of Cat 4 climbs in the last 20 kilometers but given the disorganization and the lethargy that the peloton seems to be suffering from due to the expulsions I wouldn't bet a huge sum of money on that. Still, I'll call for a catch with about 10 km to go and then a win by McEwen. Wegmann will likely increase his lead in the KoM competition and if O'Grady's in the break he'll get most of the sprints and maybe the Yellow Jersey if McEwen blows the sprint again.
Final Order?
McEwen
Boonen
Zabel
But I'm really not sure. If the Dauphine and the Tour de Suisse were any indication, maybe the breaks will have a lot better chance this year than they've had over the last couple when Postal/Discovery sort of made sure everything stayed in hand.
We'll see.
