Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Here are a few random thoughts running through my addled mind:

The Brett Farve thing...would everyone just SHUT UP! The dude needs to just chill. If he really loves the game he'll take a trade to Tampa Bay, play hard there and take the Bucs to the NFC Championship. But he doesn't really love the game...he loves the fame and in doing so he's just like Jacko and Britney and all the other sucking up the oxygen I breathe wanna-be's out there.

Team Time Trialing...what an awesome thing to do. Practiced with the fellas last night and we were smooth and fast. It was a good...no, great...practice and we have got to be in the mix this weekend for the state TTT championships. I'm really looking forward to the race weekend. Now if I can just find a dogsitter.

Blue Moon...there may be no better summer beer. After a hard ride with an orange slice...about as close to heaven as a guy can get. As a side note, I had my Blue Moon today in what has to be about the best registration shwag I've ever gotten at a bike race. A few years ago, OMBA-SORBA gave out pint glasses instead of tee-shirts in the registration package for a MTB race. More events should think like this. Maybe Georgia Cup should give out pint glasses with the logo instead of clothing. I know it would get a lot more use in my house. Medal would be nice too...at least for the categories that they don't give money out...like ours.

Southern Heat...I think I need to work out something where my wife and I go to Salt Lake for about two weeks during the worst of the Georgia heat. It was funny to hear about everyone talk about how hot and humid it was as we sat outside and enjoyed a few cold ones at my brother's place. Had we tried to have the BBQ in my backyard we all would have melted. I don't mind a little heat and the dry air in the intermountain west is just great. More than that, I would really enjoy a two week training around Lamoille. I'd probably need to take a mountain to deal withe all the dirt roads and really rough pavement but riding in the morning and hiking in the afternoon would be about as perfect a vacation as I could imagine.

Two weeks off...I have about two weeks off before I have to go back to work. Thank God. I need a break to catch up on sleep, read and just not think about all the crap I have to do. Contrary to what a lot of people believe, education is a hard thing to do. Everything has to do with people and the really hard problem of how they learn. I can't speak for everyone but it's takes a lot of energy out of me to work with students and to think about designing curriculum that helps them learn, especially when the high schools no longer teach anything vaguely related to critical thinking anymore. I love the process of learning and the rush of seeing a student understand things for the first time but the process still takes a lot of energy.

Anyways, thanks for reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Friday, July 25, 2008

One of the reasons for this trip out to Salt Lake is to place my mother's ashes in their final resting place. To that purpose, we've gathered as much of my mom's immediate family as we could together and we took a trip out to the place where she spent much of her time, Lamoille, Nevada. Lamoille is a small ranching community nestled at the base of the Ruby Mountains about 15 miles from Elko. My grandparents bought a house there many years ago and then built a cabin in the canyon about the house and both of my parents spent much of their childhoods in the area. For all of us, the cabin was an especially beautiful and restful place where we spent time on vacations fishing, hiking and playing games. Much of the inspiration for my mom's painting came from the Lamoille Canyon and the wildflowers that filled it.

So, along with my brother, my dad and his wife and my grandmother, Kathy and I traveled out to Lamoille to bury her ashes not far off the trail that she hiked often where one can rest and see the cabin. The picture you see here is the tree under which we buried her ashes. As you might imagine it was a bittersweet trip in some ways and a wonderful one as well.

It's always great to go to the canyon. Many people who have visited have said that the Ruby Mountains and Lamoille Canyon remind then of the Swiss Alps with their souring pinnacles, glacier carved valleys, crystal clear streams and grassy, wildflower meadows. I love the sounds and smells of the canyon and it was wonderful to spend an afternoon with my family enjoying its beauty.

The somewhat sad part was that for my dad and grandmother there were lots of memories but few remaining connections. They both knew all of these people who have died or left. They helped write some of the history of the region and they knew everyone. Most of those people have died or moved on now and so there was a lot of the rest of us having to hear my tell relive memories in sort of a sad way. When added to the difficult task of place my mom's ashes, it made things a little hard.

Still, it was a good trip and it help close a chapter of my life. Each year I'll be able to travel to a place I love and spend some time in remembrance of my mom. I'll smell the pine and sage and "quakies" and hear the whisper of the wind and the rush of the streams and remember the times when my mom took my brother and I hiking up to the glacier along that trail. In time we'll place the ashes of my dad and my grandmother in the same place and their ashes will fertilize the mountain cedar and wildflowers and give back to the place that has given so much to us.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Monday, July 21, 2008

Sorry it's been a few days since I've posted but our DSL modem decided that this life was too great a burden and so departed for the great technological waste bin in the sky (or some such other metaphor as might come to mind). The break from the computer was good I think as I got a lot of reading done on topics as diverse as the negative perceptions of Christianity found in the last two generations of Americans, the confluence of epidemic disease pools in the years between 200 BCE and 1200 CE and the culture of fear modern advertisers, politicians and religious leaders have generated in order to manipulate others into following their agendas. You can check out my reviews of some of these things out at Amazon under the name Chad "Downhill" Davies.

The Tour has been interesting since I last wrote with the race tightening up with the last mountain stage. I have to wonder what might have happened if CSC had decided to lay down the hammer on the first climb up the Col Angel. I really think they could have cracked Evans like they had Valverde up the Tourmalet and he would have been out of the Tour right there. Of course, had they done that then Menchov may have had the strength to ride away from the worn out Schlek and Sastre on the final climb. Still, I think it was a risk I might have taken had I been Riis since my two climbers still don't have anywhere near enough time with only two hard stages to go before the final TT where Evans will get three minutes back (and Vande Velde and Menchov will get 2:30). Nevertheless, it's really exciting to have the race still have six riders all within a minute of the lead.

Tomorrow's going to be interesting as there's a huge risk/reward ratio here. If someone's willing to take big risks they could crack the race wide open. There are two HUGE climbs but the finish is 24 km after the last one. If one of the GC contenders can get away on the last climb and then take some risks on the descent, he could do some real damage. Of course, he could also pull an Ullrich and ride off the side of the road and into a ditch and end his chances of making it to Paris. More interesting is the possibility that one fo the guys who is lurking a little further back could launch an attack over the first climb and then race down the first descent and hold onto a lead going over climb number two. If I'm Valverde, that's what I'm doing. Go for broke.

"Alejandro, Senor, everyone knows you can finish top ten; doing so again doesn't really prove much. But if you can get away and win with panache then you'll be remembered and maybe you'll get back into this thing."

The same goes for Kirchen and the two Euskatel riders who are placed just at the top ten level. But what I really see happening here is that CSC sends Andy Schlek out for a suicide ride to make the other teams chase hard and do the work (with any luck, Cunego or Lang will go with him). That'll destroy Rabobank, Garmin-Chipotle and Silence-Lotto and leave their GCF riders isolated for the 1-2 punch of Sastre and Frank Schlek. The last thing the other teams want is to allow CSC to set up their crushing series of strong men of Cancellara, Voigt and O'Grady to get into one of those grinding rhythms that end up pulverizing the legs and egos of the men around them. You have to attack and shell those guys off early if you're going to have any chance.

I rode the final climb with the guys again yesterday on my trainer. It was a great ride and I got a wonderful workout but it killed me for the rest of the day. It's gotten really, really hot here in Georgia and the temperature out on the road has been 105+ so riding outside isn't really all that good of an idea right now. After riding I made the mistake of going out to run errands and ended up sick for most of the day due to heat and dehydration. This week is a recovery week so I'll take the better part of valor and do most of my riding indoors on the rollers.

Tomorrow, my wife and I head out to Salt Lake to visit family and take care of a few things. For me, that means recovery rides at altitude; a tricky proposition to say the least. But I figure if I keep my power output and heart rate down, my body will adapt well and I may even come back with a little more oxygen carrying capacity for the races in Elberton in a couple of weeks. I'll try to keep you updated from there as I have internet access.

Until then, Ciao and Allez!

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Thursday, July 17, 2008

You'd think they'd learn but no one ever accused professional bike racers of being particularly smart, especially the Europeans. This is the sport that once called Laurent Fignon "The Professor" because he had actually gone to college for a year. Now granted, that's a bit more difficult to do in France than here in the States but please.

Anyways, Ricardo Ricco, who thrilled everyone including your erstwhile commentator here with his daring victory, turns out to be just another cheater. And a stupid one at that. I guess someone told him that if you take this new type of EPO that stays in your body longer, you'll be able to avoid detection. Too bad the World Anti-Doping Agency has been working with the drug's manufacturer to make sure they have a test to detect it (and probably the manufacturer has engineered the compound to be easy to detect in a simple blood test). For what I've read, all three doping positives in this year's Tour were for the same thing. Like I said, no one ever said these guys were smart.

So Ricco's out of the sport for a minimum of two years (assuming that the UCI's doping code isn't thrown out with the rest of the organization now that the ASO has decided to form a new cycling league). My personal opinion, as I've stated on the blog before, is that he should be banned for life unless he does some sort of penance. I'm not Catholic but there are times when I think that the church has the right idea that it's not enough to apologize and serve some sort of sentence but that you've got to actively work to fix what you've done and make things better.

Here's what I think. Ricco should have to come to the US and work amateur races as a volunteer course marshall. If he does that for two years, he gets to ride his bike again with the slate wiped clean. Until then his jobs include standing at a corner on some forgotten country road here in the deep south and holding the cars while packs of men and women who really love this sport go careening past him every so often. He can sit on the side of a hill and hand out water bottles to those struggling up the climb at the back because they believe that there's something more to bike racing than winning. He can see the pride and joy in the fathers' eyes when their kids line up for their short little race and everyone cheers for them harder than they've cheered for all the other racers that day.

I have to say that one of the things I respect about Nathan O'Neil is that after his suspension he's worked at the local races here in Georgia to make them more interesting. He's great about interacting with us pack fodder racers and bringing a little star power to the events. He could have just gotten sullen and frustrated when he got popped but instead he decided to give back to the community with his time. All of these pros should have to do that to get their licenses back...kind of like community service.

For the doctors and other enablers who prescribe this crap and help the racers find it or pressure them into using it, they should be run out of the sport period unless they can show that can make their mistakes right in some way. Penance.

So, if you're sick of the Tour and the doping scandals, go out and find a local race in your area and cheer for the guys who are racing for the love of the sport and little else. It's like going to see a Babe Ruth League or American Legion or local softball league game after getting sick of the high salaries and prima donna behavior of steroid using major-leaguers. There are a lot of great crits being run and everyone should get to stand in the center of their city square and see cyclists contest the finishing sprint in front of their city hall. Go out and support that...it's as "American and Apple Pie" as almost anything I can think of.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Well, it's a rest day for the Tour riders which is good after yesterday's brutal stage over the Toumalet and up Huatacam. After watching the stage, I'm beginning to wonder if anyone really wants to win this race. The main GC guys all sort of spend the last climb marking each other and not really doing much else which means that the guys a ways back on the GC keep winning the stages. I can understand Evans doing this as he's going to put about two minutes into everyone else on the final time trial so he doesn't have to win anything.

The big loser was Valverde. As I wrote earlier in the week I thought he'd run out of gas before the Tour was over but I honestly didn't expect it to be this week. Maybe he can recover a bit and go for a stage win now that he won't be marked but I think it's all downhill from here on out for him. He takes one more big packet on a climb and I'm thinking he may pull a Moreau and fake an injury or illness to leave the race.

For me today it was another trip on the Pain Train at Tuesday Night Worlds but this time I gave as well as received. The team divided into two groups to do some race tactics work. I'm not sure how much we actually did but my team did some attacking and I put in three hard attacks to see what I could do. My third attack was a great move and I got a really nice gap and it looked like the group might just let me go when our resident former pro, Chad M., decided to bridge up to me and see if we could make something stick. While the group might give me some rope, they weren't going to let him get too much room off the front and they made short work out of our break. Still it was a good effort and I got some practice at giving it a really hard surge and then settling into TT pace. What I need to get to the point of being able to do is being able to put another surge in about two minutes after the first to see if I can't break the elastic. I got dropped on the big climb in the last part of the course but that's not too unusual. I have the power but I'm carrying too much weight to climb well. One of my goals for the coming off-season is to lose a pound a week of weight until I'm down below 150 lbs. That should give me some more punch on the climbs as long as I don't give up any power.

Tomorrow's a medium mountain stage on teh Tour with a big Cat 1 climb so I see a break getting away on the climb and staying away to the end. Cunego is definitely one of the guys who might try something to get away on the climb and Millar might try to form a break early though I think Garmin-Chipotle might start riding to protect VdV's place in the GC. Another person I could see doing something now is Sebastian Lang from the Columbia team. Finally, there are a couple of teams that don't have a lot to show for the Tour so maybe the Basque boys from Euskatel will try to put a guy in the break like Zubeldia. I could see CSC-Saxo send Andy Schlek out as well. So, a group of climbers gets away on the lower slopes and gets a two to three minute advantage over a select group of about 40 riders who don't bring them back.

We'll see what happens.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Sunday, July 13, 2008

The first "high mountain" stage is done and nothing much was gained and maybe some things were lost. Actually, that's not completely true. For Ricardo Ricco there was a lot gained: stage win and a new bit of life in the overall competition. Ricco rode brilliantly. I watched his blistering attack up the Aspin and I found myself thinking, "This is what watching Pantani must have been like..." I never did get to see Pantani race much until late in his career and life but this is what must have gotten everyone so excited about his riding. RIcco's attack had panache. It was bold and reckless and audacious and everything we want in our cycling heroes. This wasn't a "just another day at the office" kind of win and no one in the peloton had an answer for the attack. Chapeau to Ricco.

The downside to the stage was the crash Cadel Evans had coming down the first big climb. It looked like it was a serious crash and it once again shows that there is much luck that comes into play in the sport of bike racing. Early word is that something from a spectator got into his front wheel just after a feed zone and threw him over the handlebars and onto his back. That can't be really good, especially since he seemed to be protecting his left shoulder at the end of the stage. That, combined with the newly resurgent Ricco, means that Evans is looking pretty vulnerable as is Alejandro Valverde. It seems to me that if the peloton doesn't have an answer to Ricco's attacking style they'll either have to hope that he tires and blows up on either Huatacam tomorrow or the Alpe d'Huez later in the race or that they can limit their loses and get the time back in the final time trial-something Valverde won't do.

Speaking of Valverde, he looked solid today though he may be fighting a case of tendonitis. He may be playing a psychological ploy but he was back at the doctor's car getting treatment on his leg again today. Interestingly enough, his teammates look at lot more energetic than he does, though this may have a lot to do with tactics.

We'll know a whole lot more tomorrow. It's probably the hardest stage with the monster that is the Tourmalet and then the epic climb up Huatacam. This is the stage that will absolutely blow the race apart. Unlike today, there won't be a group of thirty riders who make it to the end together and I wonder if there will be some huge attack. If there is it'll likely come from Sastre who has flown under the radar until now but who has the ability to jump away at the right time.

So here's what I see happening. There will be a break of riders that goes away before the Tourmalet. At least one of those riders will be in the hunt for King of the Mountain points so de la Fuente, Chavanel, Sanchez and Ricco are all possibilities (though I don't see the GC teams letting Ricco get much of a gap unless he has the legs to force the issue). The GC teams will make things hard enough up the Tourmalet that the break will be held to under five minutes at the top and that the field will be under fifty riders. The fireworks will happen in Huatacam and I see Kirchen losing the jersey here though I expect he'll fight hard to hang on out of pride. If Evans isn't in too bad off, he'll stay in contact until the last few kms and limit his losses. I see see Menchov doing the same though he may hang on longer due to being one of the few who hasn't crashed. The leaves Valverde, Sastre, Cunego and, maybe, Ricco at the end. Of that group, I see Sastre finally emerging to lay his claim in this race with an effort that master tactician Bjarne Riis has been telling him to hold in his legs until it'll really, really count. After this first group and Evans and Menchov will come the Schlek brothers, Pereiro, Popovitch and Vande Velde.

For my part, I plan to ride the trainer with the race. I'll but my front wheel way up on a block and ride big gear intervals during the climbs and spin a small gear on the one descent. I may even try some surges "on" the Hautacam to develop an ability to jump away from a group. It should be fun to suffer along with the riders.

Wish me luck.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Saturday, July 12, 2008

The last two stages of the Tour have been a bit harder than a lot of people predicted. Yesterday came down to a group of 30-40 but with excellent tactics two riders were able to achieve their goals for the day. De Le Fuente was able, with the help of a teammate in the break, wrest the Polka Dot Jersey from the shoulders of Chavennel and Sanchez was able to hold on for a really beautiful win. Sanchez did a great job getting into a break with three other riders who posed not GC threat and then his team basically rode tempo to allow him a chance to stay away. With the other teams basically relying on Caisse d'Eparnge to do the hard work as the strongest team in the race, they were free to send a rider out and then not chase him to allow him a good chance at the stage victory. For Sanchez, since he's riding for a serious GC contender, everyone recognized that he was in the break to make sure things didn't get too out of hand. They pull him and he does less work so he's fresher at the end. Good tactics all around.

Bjarne Riis' squad showed a little muscle for the day in trying to split the field on a tough section. They almost did it too. If the Caisse d'Eparnge team had joined in pushing the lead group that split off, it would have been a massacre. With all the major contenders in that front group though, there wasn't much to be gained by expending all the energy. Had Kirchen or Evans been unlucky enough to be behind the split, I'm sure the boys in black would have been more than happy to put the pedal down.

Basically, today's another sprint stage. A break may get away but I don't expect it to stick at this point. The usual suspects will contend and I see McEwen getting today's win. He's been unlucky to date and I think he's tired of not finishing first so there will be a little extra motivation. However, any of the rest could win today before the road goes up, up, up into the Pyrenees. That's when we'll see of Valverde has something for Evans and Kirchen or if he's doomed to another mediocre Tour finish (at least for him).

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Friday, July 11, 2008

OK...so after my little rant, let's get back to talking about the Tour.

The race has hit the middle mountain stages in France's Massif Central region. Yesterday was a summit finish and had I been making predictions I would have selected Ricco (no, really, I would have) as the finished really, really suited his riding style. Today is a very different stage even though the number of climbs and amount of climbing is about the same. The climbs come earlier and there's no really chance for the GC guys to put time into their rivals without expending way too much energy. The climbs are hard enough to crack the sprinters (or at least most of them) so I don't see them playing too much of a role. So that leaves the rolleurs to fight out a win. Jens Voigt is the typical rider of this sort and he's been talking like he wants to go off on a big break. George Hincapie would be another good choice here except that his team has the yellow jersey so he'll be protecting that. The Garmin-Chipotle team has been pretty aggressive in the race to date, though they don't have a big result to show for it. That means that Millar might try something. The trouble is that he's still close enough to Kirchen's GC time to really be allowed to get away. Really a hard race to predict today but I foresee a group of 30-40 coming to the line together and the best sprinter of the group getting the win. That could be Hincapie if he's allowed to ride. Another person might be Fillippo Pelazatto. Finally, Valverde might be a good enough sprinter to take this out.

The one thing I would say is that yesterday showed that if the main contenders can't do something really quick to put Cadel Evans in some real difficulty the Tour is already over. Evans was right with the three best finishers yesterday and he put another small amount of time into Menchov and Sastre. Cunego cracked a bit and Dessel was nowhere to be seen (so much for my dark horse). None of these guys are going to ride the final time trial at a pace that'll rival Evans so they have to get time on the mountains and they aren't really showing that they can do that early on here. Evans' biggest rival might turn out to be present yellow jersey wearer Kim Kirchen who put in a great time trial and who held his own on the climbs yesterday (even though he lost a bit of time). The next big stages are going to take place Sunday and Monday and we'll have a much better feel then as to how this race will shake out.

Thanks for reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Okay…so I see a lot of people’s facebook and MySpace pages. I like to check out profiles because I love to see the diversity of human expression and experience. But there’s one thing I have to rant about. On a lot of people’s pages, when they list their religious views, there is some statement like, “Christ Follower” or “Follower of Christ” or some such. I have to say something about that.

I have no problem if someone is a Christ Follower. Not a bad guy to follow if you ask me. Talked a lot of about love and peace and sacrifice and living in community. Inspired a bunch of people to think about life very differently. Ghandi once said that Jesus’ “Sermon on the Mount” was the greatest piece of wisdom literature human beings have ever produced (except human beings didn’t produce it…but more on that in a bit). Following that can’t be a bad thing. Not at all. The problem I have is that for most of these people are either more or less than Jesus followers. What do I mean?

A lot people who call themselves Jesus Followers actually hold views that make them Christians. What makes a person a Christian? Well, more than just “following” Jesus and His teachings. Actually, I personally know that most of these people hold to the following beliefs (along with a few others):

That Jesus is the second Person of the Trinity, eternally and equally coexisting with God the Father and God the Son.

The Jesus is fully divine and, in some mysterious way, became fully human at certain points in history.

That Jesus was born of a virgin, was fully human and lived a life that was still in full communion, without rebellion or sin, with the rest of the Trinity.

That Jesus was crucified outside of Jerusalem, died, was buried in a tomb of a rich man and then rose again on the third day from death.

That through this death, burial and resurrection Jesus conquered sin and death to allow for the possibility of the world to be restored to a full and right relationship with God.

That all humans have access to the hope of this redemption through a life offered in faith and submission to the will of the Father as found in the teachings of Christ.

That Christ will return in glory to call those who have made this choice to live in an eternal communion of love with the Trinity.

This is a lot more than being a “Christ-Follower”. This means that you’re a Christian. You see, Thomas Jefferson and Isaac Newton both called themselves “Christ-Followers” and yet rejected several of the articles of faith described above. Jefferson even altered the Bible to fit his definition of being a “Christ-Follower” much like Marcion did in the 2nd century. The Arians and countless other groups called themselves Christ followers and rejected elements of the above statements. May, many people around the world (I mentioned Ghandi above) read, appreciate and try to follow the instruction of Jesus as if were merely some sort of wisdom guru without believing He was or did any of the things above.

So why do so many young people today not want to be called Christians? They’re embarrassed by it…by the religion. They view it as hypocritical or as having a negative stigma in today’s culture. Well, guess what? Calling yourself a Christ-Follower and then still living judgmentally and exclusively still means you’re a hypocrite and people see that. “Rebranding” your version of the faith isn’t going to change that. Beyond that, I think most college students are savvy enough to see through your semantical slight-of-hand and just view it as another cynical attempt to market another crap ideaology that excludes some group outside the clan in order to make those inside the clan feel superior or “holy”.

Have the integrity to accept the label that comes with your beliefs, the things you put your faith in. Accept that a lot of people have done bad things in the name of your faith and feel sorrow for that. Remember that the term Christian was given to those who chose to express their faith in first century Antioch as a term of ridicule and derision. It was a term that would be used in that way throughout the Roman Empire for three centuries while the church was growing and serving and sacrificing to redeem the world. Understand that the name of Christ won’t be redeemed through rebranding but through actually living the way He asked us to and that when we do, the tem Christian becomes one of affection for us and glory for Christ.

If you want to use the term Christ Follower or whatever, fine but don’t lie. If you’re a Christian, stand up and be counted.

Accept the burden.

And yeah, I’m talking to you.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Tuesday Night Worlds down in TarMac tonight...the "Pain Train"...and I signed up for an "A Class" ticket. I don't know if I'm just still coming off the week off or if things were really hard tonight but I feel like I just got taken out back, put in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds (bonus Gold Star to the first person who gets the movie reference). At one point I was going so hard I'm sure I saw dead people (and they weren't the other guys suffering when my Security Bank teammates decided to make everything hard). Michael Barry, pro cyclist and NEw York Times columnist wrote recently that he had a team manager that told him to ride "until he saw Jesus." I spoke with the Lord tonight and He told me that suffering was good for me. Then I spent the next hour trying to convince my body not to void the contents of my stomach and simultaneously to chase down the paceline that had just gapped me. At one point I thought I had sort of gotten back on top of my body and then Jake went hard and I was blown to smithereens. After that I rode hard tempo until my front tire mercifully decided to die a slow, hissing death and I was able to soft pedal that last few mies in. Since the ride, I've just a little nauseated and light headed. I hope I do better next week.

The Tour today continued it's somewhat unpredictable ways with two surprises in first and second place with Stephan Schumacher taking out the win and Kim Kirchen just beating David Millar for second. The biggest surprise was Alejandro Valverde losing a over a minute to Cadel Evans. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of the end for Valverde or if he'll get to recover a bit tomorrow, make a showing in the medium hilly stages later in the week and then blow up. Either way, Evans now has about a minute on all of his pre-race rivals but it seems that he now has a few more wild card/dark horse candidates to contend with. Kirchen shouldn't be a huge surprise given that he rode well for much of the Tour de Swiss before blowing up in the race's mountain time trial. He could well be a thorn in Evans' side for the rest of the race and right now he has a twelve second lead over the race favorite. American Christian Vandevelde also rode well today and if he can do well in the mountains is positioned for a top ten finish in this year's Tour and a huge statement from the Garmin-Chipotle team.

Tomorrow is a regular sprint stage and I don't expect the sprinters to make the same mistake twice. Expect Credit Agricole, Quick-Step and the other sprint teams to keep the break close until the finale. If Cavendish can get in the right place he'll take the day and Team Columbia (of which he is a part) seems to be the best team in terms of organization right now so I expect they'll do everything they can in the last 20 km to keep Kirchen up near the front out of trouble and to set Cavendish up for the win.

More to Come. I'm off to see if I can't get to feeling better.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Yesterday was a perfect example of what make the Tour the most compelling sporting event in the world. Beyond the doping and the interorganizational politics and strife you have the riders and the race and they took center stage yesterday. Four riders, including American Will Frisckorn, took off at the gun and the main bunch never saw them again. It almost never works; the long flyer, but yester day it did. I spent the last hour of the race urging the four riders to push through the pain and they did. It was wonderful.

We also saw the capricious nature of the Tour as a rider crashed on the run-in to Nantes and split the field. Behind the split was GC contender Denis Menchov who ended up losing 40 seconds to Evans and Valverde on the stage. That could be the race for him. He wasn't paying attention and ended up, along with Ricardo Ricco, being in the wrong place at the wrong time and his team couldn't pull him back into the fold. So now it looks like it's a four man race between the two already mentioned and Sastre and Cunego.

Today is the first individual time trial with the yellow jersey on the line (assuming yesterday's yellow jersey winner doesn't become superhuman). I see this being between Valverde, Evans, Cancellara and David Miller. If Valverde's form holds, he should win this today but MIller's been targeting this all year and Cancellara is the master of this discipline. They'll all be in the top ten but I'm going with Cacellara on this one. I don't think he'll take the jersey back (he'd have to beat the present yellow jersey winner by over two minutes) but he'll get the win. For the GC guys (Cancellara can't climb) it'll be Valverde, Evans, Menchov, Cunego and Sastre in that order. Two other riders to look for will be George Hincapie and Christian Vandevelde who may end up in the top three today with an inspired ride.

It should be fun but not as fun as yesterday was.

Thanks for Reading

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Well, I was wrong about the winner of stage 2 of the Tour as Norwegian Thor Husshovd won his first stage of this year's Tour and his sixth stage in the eight years he's been coming to the event. What is interesting is that my reasoning was good in that I thought that the dynamics of yesterday's race would repeat themselves to some degree. Cancellara took a big flyer that might have succeeded had there been a bit less wind and the stronger sprinters did do better than the pure sprinters as both Zabel and Freire were both near the front at the end. The surprising thing to me was that Kim Kirchen was once again in the top five of the stage. It makes me wonder if he's planning to try and win the Green Jersey that he took over today. He's good enough to do well on the medium mountain stages that'll come up a little later in the week. I'll be the first time that someone who wasn't a sprinter has won the Maillot Vert since Laurent Jalabert did back in the late nineties. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

For tomorrow we have a much more typical sprinter's stage with a flat finish and no climbs along the route. That means that the pure sprinters will come forward to contest things along with the power sprinters. This is the stage for the likes of Mark Cavendish and Robbie McEwen and, if things work out well for him, my boy Oscar Freire. For my money, the interesting clash here will be between the big egos of McEwen and Cavendish. For sporting reasons I want to see a clean finish between these two but there's a part of me that'd like to see these guys throw a few elbows in the sprint just to read the copy that'll get generated. In terms of real analysis, Cavendish has the better lead out train with American George Hincapie and German rider Gerald Ciolek there to deliver him to the line but McEwen has shown time and time again that he doesn't really need a train as he can get on others' wheels to get him close to the finish line. McEwen won a bunch of stages at the Tour of Switzerland so he's definitely ready to go but Cavendish is rumored to be leaving the race when it hits the mountains so he's motivated to get his wins now. I see Cavendish winning this but if he and McEwen spend too much time looking at each other I see Freire stealing this win.

On a personal note, today was my first day back from my week-long break. I did fifty miles for mostly flat terrain with a few hard efforts to see how the legs felt. I was good for the first 90 minutes and then things sort of fell off after that which was to be expected. The nice thing is that I've had good energy for the rest of the day and I've gotten a lot done around the house. Tomorrow will be a combination of time on the TT bike and then some recovery on the road bike. My goal is to do 50-60 miles per day for the next two weeks before I head out to Salt Lake City for some family time and a recovery week. I think this'll deliver me in the best condition to the Elberton Georgia Cup weekend in early August.

Got to get to bed so I'll sign off now but we'll see who has the legs tomorrow.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

For the second stage of ths year's Tour, we get more of the first stage but not quite as much. More rollers and another uphill finish but this time the last km is mainly flat after a climb so I see this being more for the sprinters who can stay with the hard men of the Tour. Yesterday, Oscar Freire was in the top ten and I see him pulling out the win today. Valverde will hang with the group he's in and remain in the leader's jersey for one more day.

More to Come.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Valverde is the happiest man on the planet today. He gets the win with a final 200 m sprint to pass Kim Kirchen (who ended up fourth). This is basically what I expected though I didn't foresee Kirchen being up front to contest things. Also, the Tour has claimed it's first big name victim with Mauricio Soler crashing within the last 20 km and losing 3:10 to Valverde. That's most likely the end of his GC chances though the podium might not be out of the question. My guess is that he now shifts over to trying to win the Spotty Jersey full time as a consolation prize assuming that he didn't hurt anything too badly. Ricco took fifth right ahead of Evans and Frank Schlek with Cunego, Sastre and Menchov outside of the top ten. With no time bonuses for stage placings this year, Valverde didn't get any extra time on his rivals but we'll have to see if the ASO assigns time gaps. Now the Caisse d'Epargne boys have to protect the jersey. It'll be interesting to see if they decide to protect the jersey tomorrow and up through the time trial on stage four. To me this shows that Valverde is definitely on form right now which means that Alpe d'Huez may be his Waterloo in about two and a half weeks. For today however, "Chapeau!" to Valverde's great finish.

More to Come.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Friday, July 04, 2008

Tomorrow begins the 95th Tour de France and for about the fourth or fifth time I offer up my predictions as to who will win what. Before I go too far, there are a few things that should be noted.

First, I stink at predicting this sort of thing in general. Some of that is due to the unpredictable nature of bike racing and some is due to the fact that I never seem to have that important fact that'll change the race. Last year I had Levi on the podium but not Contador (of course, no one else did either).

Second, since bike racing in general and the Tour specifically is full of uncontrollable factors, chances are that some of my predictions will be wrong simply because someone gets taken out in a crash or a freak break succeeds and moves someone up in the standings. Add to that the freak things that happen like sprinters getting hit by big green hands and such and predicting can be pretty dodgy.

Finally, there's always a big contender who gets to the race and then disappoints due to bad form caused by overtraining or a bit of illness or something else. One year is was Christophe Moreau, another it was Casegrande. Will one of the big names have a bad race under the intense scrutiny of the media circus that is the Tour? Probably.

OK, enough hedging of the bets. Here's what I think:

Best Young Rider: This may be the most interesting competition of the entire race. None of these guys will win but they are the future of the race and I think the riders under 26 are particularly interesting. Tour winner Alberto Contador won this along with the Maillot Jaune last year. This year I like Giro de Italia runner-up Riccardo Ricco to win this competition though Trent Lowe with Garmin-Chipotle is who I'm rooting for.

Polka-Dot Jersey: The best climber competition is a bit of wild-card this year. The last several years this competition has been won by a rider who has specifically targeted it. Last year was a bit different as Mauricio Soler won it while riding for the GC on a wild breakaway. This year seems like it'll be more of the same. Most commentators are predicting the jersey will remain on Soler's back but I wonder if Bjarne Riis won't play the game of sending one of the triumverate of good riders, i.e.-one of the Schlek brothers, out on a flyer to shake up the GC and that rider gets an early advantage in the jersey. I really see this jersey going to a GC guy who gets lucky. Here again, Lowe may have a chance if he decides not to worry too much about the young rider competition. The guy who I think would be the best rider to work for this thing would be Moreau who is riding in what has to be one of his final Tours. He's never finished better than fourth and he's not going to do that well this year so I think retiring with having won a jersey would be a good way for him to go out. If I have to pick a person I'm going to with Andy Schlek due to a long breakaway in one of the early mountain stages.

Best Sprinter: for the green jersey, I see this being a race between three guys: Thor Husshovd, Robbie McEwen and Oscar Freire. Oscar's the best sprinter of the three but he has durability problems. I'd like to see him win the jersey to go with his multiple world championship jerseys but I don't see him making it to the end fo the race. That leaves a epic battle between Husshovd and McEwen. If Robbie can race clean and not get relegated for head-butting someone during a sprint, he's going to be a factor. Still, there are fewer true sprinter stages early in the race as the first two flat stages have ugly little climbs at the end that will be to Thor's advantage. I'm picking Husshovd to win the whole thing but it'll be dicey early on. I don't see Zabel doing much though he'll finish in the top five as will GC contender Alejandro Valverde.

For all the marbles the big contenders are Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde and Carlos Sastre with Damiano Cunego and Denis Menchov being the outside contenders. I see Evans being the favorite though he won't set the race on fire. He'll ride very conservatively, hang on in the mountains and take time out of the real climbers in the time trial. The other guy who can do that is Denis Menchov but Menchov climbs better though he's not as good a rider against the clock. The guy who seems to have the whole package is Valverde but I think he's peaked too early. Valverde is coming off a victory in the Dauphine and his national championship but that means he may have peaked too early. Maybe he can dial it back for the first week but after reading some comments, I think he has it in mind to win the first stage and to take the yellow jersey which is a bad call in my mind. He does have one of the strongest teams as does the always reliable Sastre. So what's the top five? I've got the following:

Evans
Menchov
Sastre
Cunego
Dessel

No Valverde? Nope. I think he's a huge deal in the first week and then the wheels come off the train and he fades to a finish somewhere between 8 and 10. I also like Cyril Dessel a lot. He rode a great race back in 2006 and I think he's back after a bad year. He'll be the best placed French rider and he'll have the morale of an entire nation pushing him forward. THe French haven't had much to cheer for in terms of GC since 1999 and I think this will be a good year for them.

Finally, who's going to win stage one? For the first time in a long, long time there's no prologue to start the Tour. I think it's a bad thing but it does make the early race more unpredictable. The stage is somewhat flat but there are some rolling hills and four catagorized climbs. The biggest factor is a steep climb right at the end. For the sprinters this favors Husshovd and Freire over McEwen and newcomer Mark Cavendish. However, I think that one of the GC guys is going to come away with this and a few seconds to boot. Valverde has made noise that he wants to win the first stage and he's not bad at a sprint. Neither is Riccardo Ricco who is at the Tour for the first time. Finally, Fabian Cancellara won two stages like this at the end of the Dauphine so he's been practicing. Here's how the stage plays out. You'll have a break made up of a couple of French riders from the Breton region who will be seeking a little local glory. I know that if the Tour went through my home region and I had even a chance of taking the jersey on a wild flyer I'd do it and the Breton guys all grew up wanting to the be just like Brenton's most famous rider, "The Badger", Bernard Hinualt (who incidentally is the person who presents the Yellow Jersey at the end of every stage). The sprinter's teams, especially Credit Agricole, won't want to let a stage victory get away so the Thor boys will bring it back together hoping their man can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Unfortunately, he won't have it at the very end and Valverde will pull it out to take the jersey.

One caveat. This is a more wide open Tour than we've seen in the last few years. I believe that it's entirely possible that we'll have a break in the first couple of days and everybody will be looking at everyone else to do the work and the break might get 10 or 15 minutes and then things will get really interesting as one of these Breton guys will be strong enough to hang on through the first several stages, the early, short time trial and the medium mountain stages of the Massif Central. Then we'll see if all of the sudden everyone gets really nervous. Don't be too surprised of either Jens Voigt or Stuart O'Grady isn't the early instigator of this break.

We find out the first part of the puzzle tomorrow.

Allez!

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Doesn't it just figure. I decide that it's time to take a week off the bike and Mother Nature decides to give us here in Georgia what may be the prettiest week in late June/early July we've had in a number of years. Right now the temperature at noon on the back porch of my home (where I'm writing this from) is a lovely 76 degrees with a nice little breeze stirring the trees. It's about as perfect a day for a bike ride as you can imagine and I'm off the bike for the week. Maybe that's the point. With the weather so perfect, I can enjoy the day a bit and not rush from thing to thing on a schedule compressed by the need to get a training ride in.

Lunch was some homemade bruschetta and a glass of pinot gris with my wife and some Spanish flavored guitar via the iPod and our little Atlec speakers. This after some morning gardening and reading. I need a day like this. Nothing pressing weighing on me and a few minutes to just enjoy breathing and thinking and good food. The book I'm reading, "Faust in Copenhagen," continues to be excellent and makes me think that perhaps I should try and get a copy of Goethe's play. I'm not much on fiction any longer. I find that narratives involving real people's lives and real historical events are generally much more interesting and compelling than much of what is found in fiction but I do know that Goethe was among the greatest of all European thinkers and was, perhaps, the last of the renaissance men who I aspire to be somewhat like so perhaps reading some of his work is in order.

Of course, the difficulty is how do I fit him into all of the other things I want and need to read? It's a good problem to have...more reading than time but I still get frustrated at times.

Anyways, enough writing on such a perfect day. Summer will soon return here in Georgia and with it the heat and humidity so I'll sign off and move to things better suited to this day. More to come.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |