The first "high mountain" stage is done and nothing much was gained and maybe some things were lost. Actually, that's not completely true. For Ricardo Ricco there was a lot gained: stage win and a new bit of life in the overall competition. Ricco rode brilliantly. I watched his blistering attack up the Aspin and I found myself thinking, "This is what watching Pantani must have been like..." I never did get to see Pantani race much until late in his career and life but this is what must have gotten everyone so excited about his riding. RIcco's attack had panache. It was bold and reckless and audacious and everything we want in our cycling heroes. This wasn't a "just another day at the office" kind of win and no one in the peloton had an answer for the attack. Chapeau to Ricco.
The downside to the stage was the crash Cadel Evans had coming down the first big climb. It looked like it was a serious crash and it once again shows that there is much luck that comes into play in the sport of bike racing. Early word is that something from a spectator got into his front wheel just after a feed zone and threw him over the handlebars and onto his back. That can't be really good, especially since he seemed to be protecting his left shoulder at the end of the stage. That, combined with the newly resurgent Ricco, means that Evans is looking pretty vulnerable as is Alejandro Valverde. It seems to me that if the peloton doesn't have an answer to Ricco's attacking style they'll either have to hope that he tires and blows up on either Huatacam tomorrow or the Alpe d'Huez later in the race or that they can limit their loses and get the time back in the final time trial-something Valverde won't do.
Speaking of Valverde, he looked solid today though he may be fighting a case of tendonitis. He may be playing a psychological ploy but he was back at the doctor's car getting treatment on his leg again today. Interestingly enough, his teammates look at lot more energetic than he does, though this may have a lot to do with tactics.
We'll know a whole lot more tomorrow. It's probably the hardest stage with the monster that is the Tourmalet and then the epic climb up Huatacam. This is the stage that will absolutely blow the race apart. Unlike today, there won't be a group of thirty riders who make it to the end together and I wonder if there will be some huge attack. If there is it'll likely come from Sastre who has flown under the radar until now but who has the ability to jump away at the right time.
So here's what I see happening. There will be a break of riders that goes away before the Tourmalet. At least one of those riders will be in the hunt for King of the Mountain points so de la Fuente, Chavanel, Sanchez and Ricco are all possibilities (though I don't see the GC teams letting Ricco get much of a gap unless he has the legs to force the issue). The GC teams will make things hard enough up the Tourmalet that the break will be held to under five minutes at the top and that the field will be under fifty riders. The fireworks will happen in Huatacam and I see Kirchen losing the jersey here though I expect he'll fight hard to hang on out of pride. If Evans isn't in too bad off, he'll stay in contact until the last few kms and limit his losses. I see see Menchov doing the same though he may hang on longer due to being one of the few who hasn't crashed. The leaves Valverde, Sastre, Cunego and, maybe, Ricco at the end. Of that group, I see Sastre finally emerging to lay his claim in this race with an effort that master tactician Bjarne Riis has been telling him to hold in his legs until it'll really, really count. After this first group and Evans and Menchov will come the Schlek brothers, Pereiro, Popovitch and Vande Velde.
For my part, I plan to ride the trainer with the race. I'll but my front wheel way up on a block and ride big gear intervals during the climbs and spin a small gear on the one descent. I may even try some surges "on" the Hautacam to develop an ability to jump away from a group. It should be fun to suffer along with the riders.
Wish me luck.
