Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Monday, July 06, 2009

So le Tour may have proved the old adage about Old Age having more power than Youth today. Armstrong saw the intentions of an old teammate and converted that knowledge into 41 seconds of tactical advantage both against most of the field and his own nominal team leader. That Lance didn't say something over the radio or try to clue in his teammates in some other way speaks either to his subconscious desire to be "The Boss" against or his assumption that everyone gets what he gets so easily now after so many years of riding and working in political circles.

Now in third place, Lance is in a position to take the Malliot Jaune for the first time in four years. I can't believe that he'd keep it past Arcalis but what a story it would make. His team has to beat Saxo Bank and Sparticus by one second for every kilometer in tomorrow's team time trial. Not an easy feat; especially considering that the last time these two teams essentially faced off the time difference over a longer distance was five seconds. Both squads have problems. Saxo Bank has used a lot of energy defending the jersey the last two day and Frank Schelck is banged up. Astana, while clearly the strongest team, is a divided squad and one has to wonder if that will manifest in the race through a crash or a split. I believe that Contador is too strong to get dropped but the Old Age and Treachery might rear its ugly head a bit.

The other two teams everyone is talking about is Columbia-HTR and Garmin-Slipstream and I think they'll both factor into the mix but I don't see them beating Astana. The wild-card team as I see it is Liquigas. No one is talking about them and maybe for good reason but they've got four or five really strong riders and they could make some noise tomorrow.

My prediction is Astana, Columbia, Saxo Bank, Liquigas and Garmin. Rabobank will lose a lot of time and doom Menchov's chances. Whether Silence-Lotto can put in a good enough ride to save Evans' chances in the GC remains to be seen but I could see them losing 90 seconds pretty easily tomorrow. Cervelo will ride well enough to keep Sastre in the mix, even if he's on the outside looking in. Give them sixth overall with a minute lost. Cancellara will still be in yellow tomorrow but only by a handful of seconds.

Thanks for Reading.

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