Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Well, two out of three ain't too bad on my predictions for stage 1. The big loser for the day was Denis Menchov who lost a ton of time on a 20 K stage and will lose a bunch more in the TTT on stage 4 as Rabobank doesn't have the firepower to hang with Astana, Saxo Bank and Garmin-Slipstream. I just don't see him doing the double. Speaking of Astana, four riders in the top 10 is prett impressive and really scary for the other teams. If they can deal with the internal team rivalries it's hard to imagine them losing this race (barring bad luck). They are the odds-on favorite to crush the other teams on stage 4.

One thing to mention is the number of under 26 riders who did really well today. Nibali, Schleck, Krueziger, Martin and relative unknown Coppel rode strong time trials today. I dont know if all of these guys will make it to Paris but I think this bodes well for the future of the race and the sport if these guys will be dueling for the next five to seven years for Grand Tour supremacy. Contador may be the next three or four Tour winner but I won't be too surprised if one of these guys steps up in the next couple of years to challenge him.

Tomorrow is the beginning of the traditional "Sprint Stages". Stage 2 is a pretty hard first full day with a category 3 climb right out of Monaco and three more cat 4 climbs plus a lot of unmarked but hard bits with one of the worst about 15 km from the end of the race. To me it seems like someone who wants to wear the polka dot jersey will definitely try to get a break together since there are a lot of early points available on this stage. If someone can grab most of the mountain points here they might be able to hold the spotty jersey all the way to Barcelona.

Traditionally this is a place where a couple of riders from the smaller French teams try to do something to get some TV time so I expect the same script to play out here. This would be a great place for Moreau to lay a bit of a foundation for a KoM run (and then solidify it on the Girona-Barcelona stage) but the guy who I really think will try to make this go will be Thomas Voeckler. Add to that someone like Auge and maybe a first Tour flier by Nicolas Roche and you have the makings of an interesting break that'll last until the last 20 K or so.

After that it'll all be the sprinters' teams with Quick-Step and Columbia HTC vying to see who can control the leadout. If Cavendish can get over the last climb (and I think he can from his ride at Milan-San Remo), he's got to be the odds on favorite. There's not enough of a climb to open things up for Hushovd or Boonen so I think the pure speed guys are going to have the upper hand. Hence, I predict a Cavendish, Freire, Farrar finish.

We'll see what happens. Thanks for reading.

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