Chad's spot for various thoughts, musings, poetry, ideas and whatnot

Monday, July 06, 2009

So le Tour may have proved the old adage about Old Age having more power than Youth today. Armstrong saw the intentions of an old teammate and converted that knowledge into 41 seconds of tactical advantage both against most of the field and his own nominal team leader. That Lance didn't say something over the radio or try to clue in his teammates in some other way speaks either to his subconscious desire to be "The Boss" against or his assumption that everyone gets what he gets so easily now after so many years of riding and working in political circles.

Now in third place, Lance is in a position to take the Malliot Jaune for the first time in four years. I can't believe that he'd keep it past Arcalis but what a story it would make. His team has to beat Saxo Bank and Sparticus by one second for every kilometer in tomorrow's team time trial. Not an easy feat; especially considering that the last time these two teams essentially faced off the time difference over a longer distance was five seconds. Both squads have problems. Saxo Bank has used a lot of energy defending the jersey the last two day and Frank Schelck is banged up. Astana, while clearly the strongest team, is a divided squad and one has to wonder if that will manifest in the race through a crash or a split. I believe that Contador is too strong to get dropped but the Old Age and Treachery might rear its ugly head a bit.

The other two teams everyone is talking about is Columbia-HTR and Garmin-Slipstream and I think they'll both factor into the mix but I don't see them beating Astana. The wild-card team as I see it is Liquigas. No one is talking about them and maybe for good reason but they've got four or five really strong riders and they could make some noise tomorrow.

My prediction is Astana, Columbia, Saxo Bank, Liquigas and Garmin. Rabobank will lose a lot of time and doom Menchov's chances. Whether Silence-Lotto can put in a good enough ride to save Evans' chances in the GC remains to be seen but I could see them losing 90 seconds pretty easily tomorrow. Cervelo will ride well enough to keep Sastre in the mix, even if he's on the outside looking in. Give them sixth overall with a minute lost. Cancellara will still be in yellow tomorrow but only by a handful of seconds.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Well, two out of three ain't too bad on my predictions for stage 1. The big loser for the day was Denis Menchov who lost a ton of time on a 20 K stage and will lose a bunch more in the TTT on stage 4 as Rabobank doesn't have the firepower to hang with Astana, Saxo Bank and Garmin-Slipstream. I just don't see him doing the double. Speaking of Astana, four riders in the top 10 is prett impressive and really scary for the other teams. If they can deal with the internal team rivalries it's hard to imagine them losing this race (barring bad luck). They are the odds-on favorite to crush the other teams on stage 4.

One thing to mention is the number of under 26 riders who did really well today. Nibali, Schleck, Krueziger, Martin and relative unknown Coppel rode strong time trials today. I dont know if all of these guys will make it to Paris but I think this bodes well for the future of the race and the sport if these guys will be dueling for the next five to seven years for Grand Tour supremacy. Contador may be the next three or four Tour winner but I won't be too surprised if one of these guys steps up in the next couple of years to challenge him.

Tomorrow is the beginning of the traditional "Sprint Stages". Stage 2 is a pretty hard first full day with a category 3 climb right out of Monaco and three more cat 4 climbs plus a lot of unmarked but hard bits with one of the worst about 15 km from the end of the race. To me it seems like someone who wants to wear the polka dot jersey will definitely try to get a break together since there are a lot of early points available on this stage. If someone can grab most of the mountain points here they might be able to hold the spotty jersey all the way to Barcelona.

Traditionally this is a place where a couple of riders from the smaller French teams try to do something to get some TV time so I expect the same script to play out here. This would be a great place for Moreau to lay a bit of a foundation for a KoM run (and then solidify it on the Girona-Barcelona stage) but the guy who I really think will try to make this go will be Thomas Voeckler. Add to that someone like Auge and maybe a first Tour flier by Nicolas Roche and you have the makings of an interesting break that'll last until the last 20 K or so.

After that it'll all be the sprinters' teams with Quick-Step and Columbia HTC vying to see who can control the leadout. If Cavendish can get over the last climb (and I think he can from his ride at Milan-San Remo), he's got to be the odds on favorite. There's not enough of a climb to open things up for Hushovd or Boonen so I think the pure speed guys are going to have the upper hand. Hence, I predict a Cavendish, Freire, Farrar finish.

We'll see what happens. Thanks for reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |

Here I am at the last minute for a few predictions for this year's Tour de France. The race is one of the most interesting in years with four past champions racing (Sastre, Contador, Pereiro and Armstrong) and a bevy of strong contenders who have placed on the podium in the past (Kloden, Leipheimer, Evans, and Menchov) plus some new talent in Frank and Andy Schleck, Vandevelde, and Kruziger. There's a good bit of drama as four of the contenders actually ride for the same team which is sometimes a recipe for disaster. As always, the race uncovers who the strongest rider is.

So who do I think will win what?

Green Sprinter's Jersey: Four names here-Mark Cavendish, Thor Hushovd, Tom Boonen and Oscar Freire. THe last three have won the jersey in past tours and Cavendish is the best sprinter on the planet right now. From the looks of it there are some 10-11 stages that a sprinter might have a chance at. Four or five of those are pretty flat and suit Cavendish but the rest require that the rider make it over a few medium size climbs in good shape. Those will suit Freire who is the best guy going up hill of the four. He's the guy I would pick to win the Maillot Vert but his back isn't always so good for a three week race. Still I think it'll go down like this: Freire, Hushovd, Boonen, Cavensih, Farrar.

Polka Dotted Mountain Jersey: This is a real toss up. The guy who's won this the last few years has either been doping or has vanished off the face of the earth. To win this you have to be a guy with climbing talent that's good enough to win the race and either dominate the race or give up your chances to win the whole thing to win this jersey. Usually that points to a climber who doesn't time trial really well. The guy I'd liek to see win this is Christophe Moreau who has finsihed fourth in the Tour once in the past and isn't a bad climber. It's his last Tour and the French need to get something out of this race. The last few years he's made some noise about going for the jersey but has never seemed to give it his all. Maybe this year is his year. Otherwise I see one of the guys from one of the two Spanish teams but I honestly don't know which one. So I'll go with Moreau and leave it at that.

General Classification Yellow Jersey: I could go on and on for paragraphs as to who will win and why but there are two points to make here. First, if you're not on a team that can team time trial then you're going to lose at least a minute on stage four and that's going to be hard to make up. This makes things hard for Evans and Periero who don't have good teams for this discipline. If you don't recover well, then you're going to die in the time trial/Mont Ventoux double at the end of the race which will likely take Vandevelde out due to his recent injuries in the Giro. In between at least one favorite will explode and fall by the wayside and another will crash and end his chances. Having a strong team with several dangerous riders will help tactically but it's the guy who has the best day on the Ventoux who wins the race. By the way, if Armstrong's out of contention and the Astana is strong enough to protect Contador without his, expect Lance to do everything he can to win the Ventoux stage. So here's who I think will win:

1. Contador (really stepping out on a limb here)
2. Andy Schleck
3. Armsrong
4. Sastre
5. Evans

Periero, Frank Schleck, Leipheimer, Kruziger and Kirchen will all finish in the top 10. I don't think VDV will. Astana will win the team competition over Saxo Bank and Columbia-HTC. Cavendish will win three stages.

Today's ITT stage: Astana's sending Lance off early in case the wind comes up so that'll be interesting because it'll give Leipheimer and Contador good time checks to ride against. Miller, Dave Z. and Cancellara will also do good rides here. Hincapie may do well also. I'm going to go Cancellara, Contador, Dave z. as my top three.

We'll see what happens.

Thanks for Reading.

The Physicist   Link Me    |